BBC News tells me today that figures released by the National Office for Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics show that the economy of Great Britain plc is "out of recession." First question. How many of the words in that sentence do you understand? Can you, for instance, explain what is meant by "the economy"? In the context of this ill defined "economy", what is meant by "recession" and hence, what is meant by the economy being "out of it" Remember that the same NODLS (see above) told us we were out of recession in the 3rd. quarter of 2009. Then they decided we weren't. Or some other quango using different figures told us we weren't. Later on, another expert on BBC TV News said words to the effect that "Until we get out there into the High Street and start spending again, the economy will continue to something-or-other" So there's one definition. "The economy" is you lot pouring your money into Marks and Spencer, etc. And I hope you can now see why I don't mind in the least using vague terms like something-or-other, since I don't believe the weasel words like "recession" mean anything much either.
Now, what about "recession" Believe it or not, there is a definition of this! It's something like "four consecutive quarters of negative growth." "Four consecutive quarters" I understand, "negative growth" I'm not so sure. Four? Might be three. I forget. Who cares! But accepting the definition, we are "out of recession" when the 5th quarter turns positive. O.K. Now we are getting somewhere! Let's see . . . Q1 Growth minus 3%. Q2 Growth minus 1.5% Q3 Growth minus 2%. Q4 Growth minus 1.25%. Now we are officially in recession. So in Q5, NODLS now tells us, growth is PLUS 0.4%. In terms of the definition of "recession" we are now "out" of it. But does PLUS 0.4% after MINUS 6.75% in the previous 4 cheer you up? Should it?
Lunchtime today . . the actual figure came out. WOW. Output however they measure it, is up by 0.1%. Nought point one percent! That's ONE part in ONE THOUSAND! D'you really think economic data can be measured that accurately. Goodbye.
Lunchtime today . . the actual figure came out. WOW. Output however they measure it, is up by 0.1%. Nought point one percent! That's ONE part in ONE THOUSAND! D'you really think economic data can be measured that accurately. Goodbye.
Excellent! Very funny & pretty damn accurate. Well, within .0001 percent.
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