Wonderful, Wonderful Copenhagen . . .

. . . way down this blog I modestly pointed out that some things are so predictable you can't pretend you're clever for predicting them.  So here's another.

OUTSIDE OF WEASEL WORDS the Copenhagen Climate Change Championship Conference will achieve precisely nothing beyond bland resolutions to "do something pretty damned quick about climate change and/or global warming" or whatever the latest "scare the pants off 'em is."  And before you all started nodding wisely and agreeing with this prediction . . think about this . . . how many folk do you know who are prepared to change their lifestyles (like stopping flying, giving up the Chelsea Tractor in favour of a pushbike, gagging Jeremy Clarkson and his demented Top Gear Petrolheads blah blah) in the interests of a future more than 48 hours away?

Oh and by-the-way . .  will someone please explain to me using real live numbers exactly how "hybrid" cars save CO2, emissions/energy/oil/pollution or anything else? (And PERLEEEASE don't say "Well, the charge on the battery comes from wind energy."  Wind turbines are a massively inefficient way of generating electricity, and a massive con perpetrated on the Government and the (largely) technically illiterate public by the turbine builders.  Almost any other method of generating "green" energy is better than capturing our balmy breezes.

And a further by-the-way . . . there are MUCH BETTER ways of saving energy/petrol or whatever it is you think petrol/battery hybrids do.  Better ways would use some form of regenerative transmission. Basically, these systems "brake" the vehicle by storing its kinetic energy in a potential energy reservoir.  For instance . .  couple the vehicle to an on-board flywheel which "spins up" as the vehicle slows down etc. (Question . . . spot the downsides!)  Or . .  connect the vehicle to an on-board pressure cylinder.  When the vehicle slows, its energy is stored in the hydraulic fluid.  When the lights go green, this energy is released back into the drive train.  This system can EASILY produce burning rubber levels of acceleration WITHOUT  ANY HELP FROM THE ENGINE.  Prototypes of this system were developed thirty years ago in Glasgow University Department of Mechanical Engineering. The performance of the protoype vehicle was gobsmacking! But the idea never caught on.  I suspect because of obvious vested interests, and because the engineering involved was not "exotic"  It was done with standard "off-the-shelf" hydraulic components.  How do admen glamourise a vehicle that's built out of fork-lift truck bits and bobs, and doesn't "vrrooommm" as you get away from the lights?  Car enthusiasts do not like silence.

At present, all  exisiting types of road vehicle "brake" by converting their kinetic energy {largely) into heat in  the brakepads, discs or drums.  Amazing!  You heat things up to get your SUV going!  You heat things up to stop the bloody thing . . .  and forget-ye-not . . . the car engine is a HEAT ENGINE and cannot be better than about 35% efficient (Laws of Thermodynamics), but the pad/disc/atmosphere system is a HEAT EXCHANGER and so it efficiently wastes 100% of the vehicles kinetic energy when you use the brakes.  Get on yer bikes , ,  the fuel is a lot cheaper!

December 2009 and January 2010 FTSE Index Options

I redeemed my December FTSE 100 Index options 1 week before they expired, and opened 7 x 4800 Puts and 7 x 5800 Calls in the January 2010 series.  Fans and followers who study the option prices on the LIFFE pages will see that the NET of these transactions leaves me better off than if I had waited until the December options expired worthless on Friday 18th. December.  My December profit is £211.60 LESS than it would have been - but my take for the January series is more than it would otherwise have been at the end of next week  I pocket an unassaiable PROFIT of £1076.80 for December, and a potential profit of £2074.80p in January, provided that the FTSE 100 Index lies between 4800 and 5800 at 10.30a.m on January 15th, 2010. Only one slight hitch through the whole of 2009.  IT CAN'T LAST!  Happy New Year, folks!

Splashed Out . . .

. . . on 6000 shares in ARM Holdings.  They develop and license the technology for making the chips in yer actual mobile phones.  So do me a favour, followers and fans.  Throw that clapped out old Mobe in the recycle bin and buy yerselves a new one!  Boost the Doc's ARM dividends.  I paid 166.24p per share, net of expenses.  At the same time I sold 6 Call contracts in the June 2010 180p series on the shares.  This sale netted 8.987p per share. In effect I have paid only 157.25p for the shares.  The usual caveats apply.  I would be ill advised to sell the shares before next June, even if they are showing me a stonking profit, because I could be "called" for the shares at 180p and would have to buy them in the market at a stonking loss to meet the Call! Ideally, I'd like the shares to stay below 180p till next June, by which time I will have collected a dividend . .

I used to be a postman . .

Now I'm a jumped-up postman playing at being a Home Secretary. . . .

so when Washington tells me to deliver Gary McKinnon, I deliver him, geddit?
And if you disagree with that decision . . . observe my two fingers . . .

A Week is a Long Time . . .

 . . . in the stock markets.  The Dubai scare last weekend seems to have evaporated. And the week has been very quiet after Monday's fall.  No need to rearrange any open contracts.  Centrica dividend (£183.00p) has landed in my account. 'Night all!

Dubai.

Well, now . .  property prices in Dubai - if not the properties themselves - are collapsing, and with them, the world's stock markets.  Redbraced Experts are predicting the second stage of the Great Crash of 2008-09 and all is suddenly doom and gloom again with the FTSE down in the 5100's.  So here is a warning, with apologies to Percy Bysshe Shelley . . .

DUBAI, 2009

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shatter'd visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamp'd on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

In the words of John K. Galbraith . . .

. . . from  "The Great Crash, 1929", (p48 in the Penguin paperback edition, available from *m*z*n)

"Wall Street . . . is like a lovely and accomplished woman who must wear black cotton stockings, heavy woolen underwear, and parade her knowledge as a cook, because, unhappily, her supreme accomplishment is as a harlot."

Sell All Your Shares . . .

. . . as soon as you read, or some redbraced financial genius says "This time it's different" or "We're in a new paradigm" or words to that effect.  It means there's a crash, or at best a significant market reversal  coming . . .

Handball

I am pleased and proud to tell my millions of devoted fans that I have never wasted a single penny watching this dirty, cheating, spitting, foul-mouthed, corrupt, unbeautiful game since I was a schoolboy. If handball has been played in those days at the level of shirt-pulling, tripping, blind side kicking, tripping and thumping that disgraces the game today, after ten minutes there would have been two netkeepers on  the pitch, the other twenty overpaid cretins would all have been taking early baths.  Nor do I waste my one precious life watching dumb goons chasing a handball round a television screen.  (Though when the first blind-side slaying happens, I might just watch the replays with considerable satisfaction.  For it will mean one dead and one in the slammer - after the penalty throw has been taken, of course.)  Football, beautiful, beautiful football is a quite different kettle of shit . .  sorry, fish.

FTSE 100 Share Index . . .

 . . . ended the week at 5258.  Centrica shares edged above 260p on Wednesday, but the rise was not sustained, so no threat to my covered calls in this stock at 280p in the March 2010 series.

Yesterday In Parliament . . .

. . . the aptly named Minister for Education sought to discomfit an Opposition oppo on the business  of GCSE exams getting easier.  Mr.Balls asked the Honorable Member for Somewhere, and quoting from actual exam papers:- 1)  To name the enzyme which brought about some particular process of digestion, 2) to explain how a flourine atom becomes a flouride ion, and 3) to work out three quarters of one and two sevenths, or something like that.

The Opposition MP did not rise to the bait, so presumably Balls thought he had proved his point.  Well, sorry Ed - but in the context of the subjects in question, all three questions are  trivial.  The first asks the candidate to regurgitate a bit of physiological fact.  A dumkopff candidate can answer it without knowing anything about enzymes, what they are, what they do, what digestion involves  . . . need I go on? The second asks for information relevant to all chemical processes (electron exchange).  That one knows nothing of chemical physics does not prove the question is difficult - in fact, once again, it is - or should be - trivially easy for a chemistry student. A few more give-away marks. What to say about the third question?  In my day children of 11 or 12 could do this sort of thing - though why we were asked to remains a mystery. These days,  many first year University students in technical subjects can't do this sort of thing.  Some of them can't "cross-multiply." Plenty of engineering students reach the Universities never having heard of "logarithms" - because they use calculators in school for division - and so are totally bemused by elementary differential equations.   The Open University admits students without asking for proof that they can read and write . . radio and TV editors no longer know the difference between "less" and "fewer", "jealous" and "envious", "may" and "might", etc. etc  . . most German truck drivers can speak English better than the Brits . . . but don't get me started.

What's the FTSE doing just now . . . ?   (Hey, Mr.Balls, what's meant by a "covered call"? You perhaps don't know the answer - but that doesn't prove the question is "difficult" - merely that the answer ain't to be found in your extensive specialist knowledge of digestive processes, chemistry or arithmetic.)

And that's another thing!  I wish end-of-life programmes like "Countdown" would stop referring to "maths" when they mean "arithmetic"  Arithmetic is to maths as paintbrushes are to Turner sunsets.

Redeemed . . .

. . . my November short 5550 Calls when the FTSE kicked off this morning up yet again. The FTSE Index stood at about 5340 when I bought back the Calls for 2.5p (i.e. £25 per contract)  Astute fans might be wondering why I redeemed these contracts when they were still 200 points "safe".  Because the buy-back costs rise rapidly as the FTSE Index gets closer to the "strike price"  Interested fans can check this out by examining the dealing prices on the Euronext pages. (Click on the LIFFE OPTIONS PRICES link above) The rises this month have been mostly on the back of the extraction and mining companies and oils.  Net cost of this repurchase was £195.80p, reducing my pocket money on November trades to £1332.60p - see head of this blog. At 4.00pm, with the FTSE at 5365 and the Dow Jones Index in New York still rising, I opened December contracts, 6 "short" in the 4800 Puts and the same number "short" in the 5800 Calls.  This sale netted £1268.40p, which will be my profit if the FTSE Index ends between 4800 and 5800 at 10.30a.m on 18th. December.  That'll buy the Christmas Nosh, innit?

It Isn't Just Me . . .

. . . today's "Guardian", Money Section, page 3, features a fund manager who has set his face firmly against equity investments for decades.He has vastly more experience than I with UK Gilts.  His article reinforces my belief, stated in earlier posts, that Gilts - not shares - should be the bedrock of your investment portfolio. He points out that shares are a good long term investment only so long as you get your timing right.  Worth a read.

Labour Have Won . . .

 . . . Glasgow North East in a by-election  caused by the resignation of Speaker Martin, scapegoated by the Establishment following the MPs' Expenses Scandal. And lo! The Labour benches in Parliament are already celebrating another Great Labour Victory in the next General Election. Don't count chickens, folks! Glasgow NE is (probably) the most underemployed, quasi-literate, welfare dependent constituency in the land.  They would vote for a collie dog, or a caulflower, or a cardboard cut-out of Mickey Mouse as long as it had a Labour ticket hung round its neck. Voting Labour is one of their Great Traditions, along with drink and football-watching.  The exciting aspects of the result are twofold. First, another drubbing handed out to the self-satisfied, self-regarding, Alex Salmond, Tartan Chief of the SNP, aptly described by one wag as "Great Pudding of the Chieftain Race"(*).  Second - the Tories only just pipped the BNP for third place. Nick Griffin always looks like he needs a clean shirt and his suit pressed, but the fact that this dismal politician can give the Tories a close run holds the prospect of exciting times ahead next Spring.

FTSE closed last evening at 5269.  Wall Street;s Dow-Jones index fell 94 points and so my potential profit of £1500 odd on the November FTSE Option contracts is beginning to look fairly safe.  Expiry next Friday, 20th. November

(*)   Misquoting one of Rabbie Burns's less dismal poems.

A Rant about A.I

A.I in the context of something-or-other stands for "artificial intelligence", and Wilkipedia (inter alia) will explain it and link you to scientific and philosophical discourses on the subject.  Well, DREAM ON! As I type this, the "Radio Times" is on the coffee table in front of me. But it is "upside down". Nevertheless I can still read the title.  As I could if the idiot printers had printed "Radio" upside down with respect to "Times" and the whole thing reading from right to left.  Or with every letter printed in a different colour and in a different typeface and with some of the letters upside down and some the right way up and and some of the letters mirror images of themselves and with the odd letter printed twice or in the wrong order and maybe with all the vowels missed out.  (Though not so easy if all the consonants were missed out.  Hmm? That's food for thought, innit?)  Can a machine reader do any of these "human" intelligence tricks? The root of the problem is simple.  The nerds, geeks and A.I Departments in our tenth-rate Techyversities begin by defining "intelligence" as a "something" which they can make a machine simulate. Like - recognising a chair as something to sit on, or walking downstairs without falling over. Then they say,  "Look at my wonderful machine.  And more imnportant, LOOK AT ME!!  Aren't we wonderful?  Aren't we intelligent?"  Well . .  er . .  no!  The techytype with his soldering iron and "Unix for Dummies" textbook may well be, but his quasi-useless machine isn't.

Here's another example of an artificially intelligent system whose I.Q is somewhat lower than a stone.  The other day, I was required to "activate" a new credit card. On keying the 0800 number (freephone to my friends across the Pond), a nicely spoken person asked me what I wanted to do.  Usually they tell you which button on the phone to press, and for a glorious moment I thought I was speaking to a real live girl. But NO!  When I said "I want to activate my new credit card", the voice-simulating machine replied "I'm sorry.  I didn't understand that.  Please try again."  Very slowly and carefully I said,  "Activate. New. Credit. Card"  This went on through several repeat loops.  (Oh . . . I'm sure I wasn't enunciating English any worse than "she" was, and I certainly speak more clearly than most of the interviewees and interviewers that you hear these days on radio and TV resolutely honking and snorting their way through one of the world's most beautiful languages. If you want to hear good English these days on the BBC or BBC World Service, listen out for the Swedish truck drivers and Chinese physicists. They speak English better than the average Estuary Native.)  But I digress.  Eventually "she" gave up and asked me for my card number.  Guess what?  Same routine. No matter how a enunciated the sixteen digits, "she" told me she didn't understand.  Finally I was asked if I would like to "speak to one of our experts"? . .  and wey-hay!! - "she" managed to understand my "Yes"  The point is, of course, that if I had been connected to a normally intelligent human in the first place and had said (something like) - "Oh, hi!  How yer doin'?  Listen, see, er, er, I got my, er, what's it, um, new credit thingy, credit card, you know, and I need to, like, hang on where's it gone, right, got it. What's the word?  Yeah. Activate it, you know, the new card thingy business."  If I had come out with that gobful of ordinary human speech, the "intelligent" human at the other end would have decoded it instantly into what I wanted to do. Artificial Intelligence? Perleeease.  Don't make us laugh!

End Of The Week . .

. . . again, with the FTSE 100 Share Index at 5142.7.  The November contracts expire on 20th.November, and my position is so far safe, and no rearrangements have been required.  The FTSE Index stood at about 5190 when I opened November index option contracts on 16th. October.  The index is going nowhere, which is just the way we "shorters" like it!

End Of Another Week

FTSE finished the week at 5044.6.   Pretty close to the mid-point of my 4550 - 5550 spread in the November series of FTSE Index option contracts.  The FTSE opened at 5133.9 on the first trading day of October.  So the Index has fallen 1.74% in the month of October.  So in the 26 Octobers of the FTSE's history, the index has risen 19 times and fallen 7.  (See previous post "Historic Octobers", and decide for yourselves whether October is an historically week month or not.)

Red Braces Think Alike . . .

FTSE 100 Index (Top)   and DOW JONES Index

 . . . on 26th. October 2009.   Wall Street (Dow Jones Index) opens at 9.30 a.m (Eastern Seaboard Time) or 1.30 p.m GMT.  I have superimposed the movements in the 2 indicices from Wall Street's opening.  Who's to say whether London tracks Wall Street or vice-versa - but note how the 2 indices move ABSOLUTELY IN LOCK STEP.  Every up or down in one is reflected in t'other index.  Note particularly the big slide on Wall Street at 11.30 EST.  I've said before that (in my view) the FTSE 100 Index has little relation to the British Economy.  These graphs suggest it has more to do with the American . . .  see why I take no notice of economic/business news . . .  (See foot of this blog for more of same . . . )

Ye FTSE Index . .

. . . ended the week at 5246, a trifle down on the week. BorING!

In Out In Out . . . of RANT mode

 . . . and of recession.  The BBC Business News at 6.15a.m today informed us that the UK economy is technically "out of recession" because output or GDP or some equally badly defined "measure" had gone up by an eye-watering 0.2% repeat nought point two percent that's two parts in a THOUSAND in the three months July to September.  Well, Hoo-Bluddi-Ray!  Does anybody really think the measure can be measured that accurately?  Well, apparently it can't because by 1.00p.m the BBC News was telling us that whatever was being measured had gone down in the last quarter.  And what did the FTSE Index make of this sudden surge or decline take your pick in British fortunes?  Well, as I blog, it's soaring about 80 points from last night's close to stand at about 5280. "Why is this?" I hear you cry. Well I'll tell you. The first reason is that Wall Street was up 1.3% yesterday, so the Red Braces of Britain MUST buy shares in case they would otherwise get left behind. The second reason is that rhe FTSE Index of 100 leading shares has absolutely no connection whatsoever to the economy.  Its surge since its low in March has been driven almost entirely by gains in the mining and oil sectors.  Which gives the lie to the nonsense you read in the "Money" sections of the Fat Sundays that "shares are the best investment over the long term"(*) - quoting what has happened to the FTSE Index since it started up in January 1984 in defence of this ridiculous shibboleth..  Shares might be just the thing for a tracker-fund manager with £billions to invest on your behalf in a fund that will last for a thouand years - though I wouldn't bet on it.  But shares aren't a good bet for me, you or the average blogger because we aren't going to live long enough, and we haven't got nearly enough NOT NEARLY ENOUGH disposable wealth to invest in a big enough numbers of shares in a big enough spread of the FTSE to track it's ups and downs.  So forget about buying yer 200 Marks and Spencer shares so that you can retire to Spain next week on the proceeds.

(*) Bonds is best!  I don't mean corporates (remember Lehmans?) or local councils (like Orange County, Calif. or the wise councillors who invested in Landsbanski)  Stick to UK Gilts.  Or if you insist on diversifying, try some more UK Gilts.  The Gilts Market is a proper market.  The Stock Market is not.  You can calculate the cash flow on your Gilts TO THE PENNY over the whole term to maturity.  You can't rely on BA or BAA or Rolls Royce to still be in business this time next week.  Remember GEC-Marconi . . remember RBS  . . . remember Enron?